Ardue le previsioni sulla vendemmia 2016, soprattutto per l’ Italia, dove ogni anno, nei mesi precedenti e successivi alla raccolta, girano numeri e stime di cui, a volte, è difficile persino fare una sintesi. In Francia la situazione è diversa dove una nota del Servizio di Statistica e Previsione del Ministero dell’Agricoltura (www.agreste.agriculture.gouv.fr) ha pubblicato le previsioni: 44 milioni di hl., in calo dell’8% sul 2015 e del 4% sulla media degli ultimi cinque anni, a causa principalmente delle gelate primaverili che hanno colpito pesantemente il potenziale produttivo di Champagne, Borgogna e Loira. E c’è il pericolo che possa andare ancora peggio, perché c’è da fare i conti, in molte zone, con la pressione delle muffe, mentre gli alti livelli delle riserve idriche potrebbero avere un effetto positivo in termini quantitativi.
Il report del Ministero dell’Agricoltura francese sottolinea anche un certo ritardo nello sviluppo fenologico, con l’andamento che, per il resto, dopo le gelate e la grandine ha trovato, nel complesso, una certa stabilità. Nello specific0, in Champagne le gelate hanno compromesso il potenziale produttivo di 4.600 ettari, tanto che la produzione è prevista in calo del 32%. In Borgogna e Beaujolais il danno è persino maggiore, e riguarda, con diversi gradi di incidenza, 10.000 ettari, specie intorno a Beaune, con un calo produttivo stimato in un -23%. L’Alsazia, invece, dovrebbe ripetersi sui livelli del 2015, così come la Savoia ed il Jura (in leggero calo, del 6%), mentre la Loira, che è stata colpita dalle gelate con danni che vanno dal 10 al 50% del vigneto, dovrebbe lasciare sul terreno il 32% sul 2015. Nel Bordeaux, nonostante un ritardo della fase vegetativa, sembra andare tutto per il meglio, sulla falsa riga del 2015, in Languedoc-Roussillon, invece, gelo e grandine non hanno lasciato strascichi particolari, così come nel Sud-Est del Paese ed in Corsica.
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