Dopo un 2015 in cui l’import mondiale di vino è cresciuto a valore di oltre il 10% (grazie anche al rafforzamento del dollaro che ha permesso ai produttori europei di essere più competitivi e di godere di plusvalenze nei cambi), le stime Wine Monitor sugli acquisti di vino dei primi 8 mercati – che fanno quasi i 2/3 dell’import mondiale – non sembrano restituire valori altrettanto positivi.
Guardando ai nostri principali mercati di sbocco, gli Stati Uniti dovrebbero chiudere l’anno con un incremento inferiore al 2% rispetto al 2015, il Regno Unito al contrario importerà meno vino (-9%) così come la Germania (-4%), mentre il Giappone chiuderà con una crescita vicina al 3% e solamente la Cina continuerà a correre a ritmi sostenuti (quasi +20%).
“In uno scenario di mercato contraddistinto da più ombre che luci, anche i vini italiani risentono di queste incertezze e battute d’arresto dove i cali sono in larga parte generalizzati e risparmiano pochi grandi esportatori” dichiara Denis Pantini, responsabile Wine Monitor di Nomisma. Queste valutazioni partono necessariamente dagli ultimi dati disponibili in tema di commercio internazionale (settembre), dai quali si evince una preoccupante diminuzione delle importazioni di vini fermi imbottigliati – che rappresentano oltre il 70% degli scambi mondiali della categoria – in quasi tutti i principali mercati considerati, con cali superiori al 10% nel caso del Regno Unito.
Continuano invece a crescere le importazioni di sparkling, con i nostri vini (Prosecco in primis) che la fanno da padrone, mettendo a segno aumenti del 30% sia negli USA che in UK, a fronte di medie di mercato nettamente inferiori (nel Regno Unito, mentre l’import di spumanti dall’Italia cresce del 31%, quello totale non arriva al +1% anche a causa di un arretramento dei francesi dell’11% che però pesano ancora per il 53% sull’import della categoria). “Guardando ai singoli competitor, gli spumanti italiani crescono più dei concorrenti in tutti i principali mercati di consumo tranne in Giappone dove Francia e Spagna ci surclassano e la nostra presenza è ancora marginale, mentre nei vini fermi andiamo peggio di Nuova Zelanda e Spagna negli Stati Uniti, del Cile in UK – gli unici vini a crescere in un mercato in calo – e nuovamente dei neo zelandesi in Canada” continua Pantini. In buona sostanza, la gran parte dei mercati sta tirando il fiato con molti operatori che sembrano stare alla finestra anche alla luce delle diverse incognite che si stanno prefigurando per il 2017.
Tra queste una Brexit che non si capisce ancora quando si farà e con una sterlina che da prima del referendum ad oggi ha perso il 13% del suo valore nei confronti dell’euro (ma ben il 19% nei confronti del dollaro australiano e neo zelandese) e, contro tutti i pronostici, l’elezione di Donald Trump a presidente degli Stati Uniti le cui dichiarazioni in campagna elettorale, se dovessero trovare conferma in provvedimenti di politica economica, potrebbero deprimere ulteriormente il commercio internazionale. E non solo per il “congelamento” del TTIP (dato per scontato ormai da tempo), quanto per quegli interventi di tagli fiscali, investimenti pubblici e ulteriore sviluppo della produzione nazionale di petrolio che, conducendo necessariamente ad una crescita dei tassi di interesse e ad una rivalutazione del dollaro potrebbero certamente favorire le importazioni di vino italiano negli Stati Uniti, ma contestualmente finirebbero per deprimere ulteriormente le economie di quei paesi basate sull’export di commodity come la Russia, da tempo in crisi e con importazioni di vino in continuo calo.
Ed è anche per questi motivi che assumono maggiore centralità gli accordi di libero scambio che l’Unione Europea sta negoziando con i paesi terzi e che dovrebbero trovare, per alcuni di questi, l’entrata in vigore nel 2017, con benefici per l’export dei nostri vini. Vale la pena, in questa sede, ricordarne due: il CETA e l’EVFTA, rispettivamente gli accordi con il Canada e il Vietnam, per i quali si attende la ratifica del Parlamento Europeo e l’entrata in vigore (per il Ceta in via provvisoria) entro aprile del prossimo anno. Si tratta di accordi che prevedono l’abolizione dei dazi a carico dei nostri vini (per il Vietnam la riduzione è pari al 50% nel primo anno fino ad arrivare all’eliminazione totale entro il settimo anno), il rafforzamento della tutela delle indicazioni geografiche e la rimozione delle barriere tecniche, tra cui si segnala la diversa modalità di calcolo delle imposte ad opera dei Liquor Board delle province canadesi che dai valori passerà ai volumi di vino importato, favorendo quindi i prodotti con prezzo medio più elevato.
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